written ahead of Sprint Qualifying.

There’s no doubt that every year Verstappen has competed in Formula One could easily be labelled impressive. 2015, his rookie year where he swam comfortably having followed in the footsteps of Ayrton Senna and Jan Magnussen in skipping Formula 2. 2016, when he once again proved that the step up to the main Red Bull squad was for himself all but a doddle with that win in Spain and finding further success with six podiums. And of course 2023, where he shattered records previously held by Sebastian Vettel and Juan Manuel Fangio while practically walking his way to a third successive title. 2025 however has seen Verstappen drive arguably his hardest car yet, but it is perhaps the greatest sign of a rejuvenated Red Bull that he finds himself in realistic contention for a fifth straight title. Such a feat is now only four races away and 36 points away, and would place Verstappen alongside the aforementioned Argentinian.

The great El Cheuco was of course no stranger to triumphing against insurmountable odds, as his – and there’s no other words for it – immortal drive at the 1957 German Grand Prix shows. Granted, those circumstances were far more urgent than the predicament Verstappen finds himself in now, yet if the Flying Dutchman were to usurp both McLarens not only would it be the greatest deficit overhauled in F1 history, I daresay it would be worthy of Fangio himself.

But that’s all romanticism. A look at the facts tells us that this weekend’s Sao Paulo Grand Prix, hosted for the 42nd occasion at the Autodromo Carlos Pace has not only been kind to Verstappen, it has often proved something of a crystal ball. In all 19 times has the winner of this race gone on to win the championship. It’s best streak of prediction came between 1991 and 2000, where the winner of the Brazilian Grand Prix went on to win the title for 10 straight seasons. It makes for an impressive strike rate of 37 percent in total.

Good news for Verstappen then, that Interlagos has historically proven one of his best tracks. When it comes to the total number of podiums he’s accumulated only Barcelona (Spain), Autodromo Hermanos Rodriguez (Mexico City), the Red Bull Ring (Austria) and the Circuit of The Americas (USA) outrank Brazil, where he’s taken three wins, six podiums and six fastest laps. If not for contact while lapping Esteban Ocon in 2018, he’d have made it four for the former. He’s also never been beaten by his teammate here.

Stats aside, it’s also been the location of two of Verstappen’s key moments when it came to embedding himself in both the growing fanbase and amongst his fellow competitors. I am of course referencing two of the greatest ever displays of car control I’ve ever seen in motor racing. His insane drift in the at the sloping Mergulho corner (turn 11) in 2015 in his rookie year with Torro Rosso, and of course the 170mph save he (somehow) pulled off in 2016, before his subsequent defence seconds later against Nico Rosberg.

Another pointer is of course last year’s race, in which after an engine penalty Verstappen started down in 17th. Incredibly, he passed eleven cars in the next twelve laps and after extending his first stint a red flag came out, allowing him to effectively have a free pit stop and line up behind both Alpines. Swiftly dealing with Team Enstone’s duo of Esteban Ocon and Pierre Gasly he went on to win by a domineering 17 seconds. It was only the third time in F1 history – and the first in 20 years – that anyone had won from such a low starting position, and will be remembered as one of Max’s best drives.

At the same time, McLaren’s own title contending duo have struggled here. Oscar Piastri is heading into this weekend having finished 8th and 14th respectively in both his outings as he will be desperate to turn his form around, while Norris has just one podium in his five races here, and converted pole not to a win but to a lowly sixth last year. Of course it must be said on the comparison front that only as recently as 2023 have McLaren and Red Bull been of equal standing in the championship. But it’s clear the on-paper advantage lies with Verstappen for this year’s edition as he continues to whittle down what at its peak was a staggering 104 point gap to the leader.

Rarely have things come together so perfectly for a momentum swing in what is now proving the first true title fight in the current generation of car.

All of this is brilliant if you are a Verstappen fan, though I must concede it would be silly of me not to play the devil’s advocate here.

Lando Norris has seemingly turned a new leaf in the last month, as his utterly unchallenged victory last time out in Mexico proved. I’ll even hold my hands up and come forth with the fact that I did not deem it possible for Lando to come back after his poor display in Azerbaijan after teammate Piastri made an uncharacteristically unforced error and ended his race on the first lap.

Yet here we are.

It’s these kinds of performances that Lando has been waiting to unleash that have rightfully propelled him to the top of the standings. There’s a sense he always had it in him, but until now for whatever reason he hasn’t found the key to unlock that potential. Now in such a rich vein of form, what better time would there be to re-write his Brazilian formbook? He may not have been the stronger of the two McLarens for much of this season, but right now he’s top of the standings when it matters.

Oscar Piastri meanwhile will no doubt be urging himself on to produce one of his trademark, Jackie Stewart-esque performances we’ve seen from him already this season. Stewart was a man known to take or hold the lead on his first lap and never look back – Germany is the sight of perhaps his greatest win too, an incredible display amidst torrential rain saw him hold a lead of four minutes when the chequered flag fell – much like we’ve seen with Piastri’s wins in China and the Netherlands earlier this season. The latter was the Australian’s first Grand Slam in his short-yet fruitful F1 career, but with only one podium since then the latter third of the season has been Piastri’s toughest stretch.

The alarm bells won’t be ringing in the ever-cool Aussie’s head yet though, heading into this weekend he’s still only one point behind his teammate and will know he’s both good enough to come back from these recent rocky times and that with the championship being as close as it is right now panicking over a lost lead is only going to exacerbate any existing issues.

Papaya’s perplexing parity aside, this season has been a rollercoaster even if we’re referencing purely on track affairs. Yes, last year had more winners from more teams, but this year’s title fight has, well, actually been a title fight. It may not have had it’s lead players at each other’s throats ala Senna and Prost, it may not have been as nail-biting all the way through as Hamilton and Rosberg, but I think we should at least be thankful the globetrotting arena of Formula One now has itself a true gladiatorial battle, rather than the Max Verstappen show.

Brazil will no doubt shape the narratives and future of this title, perhaps decisively, but make no mistake:

Whoever takes all the glory at Abu Dhabi in December will have absolutely deserved it.

– Thomas

thumbnail credit – By Steffen Prößdorf, CC BY-SA 4.0, https://commons.wikimedia.org/w/index.php?curid=152349390